Overall, the national and capital housing market index dropped by 10-10 points in the first quarter. House price growth predictions enhanced: previously owned home prices might rise by 5-6% while new homes by 10% – suggests the GKI and Masterplast survey.
GKI quarterly conducts surveys to assess companies’ prospects in the real estate industry – 101 companies took part in this survey. The analysis uses the results of representative public opinion surveys (based on 1000 samples). Masterplast Nyrt. supports the survey since January 2020.
The governmental support schemes, MNB’s Green Home Loans Programme, and the increase in personal incomes – which have been continuously eroded by inflation -positively impact residential property market demand. The Russian-Ukrainian war has also affected Hungarian real estate: 53% of companies in the real estate business suggest a negative market impact, while only 16% think the opposite. A further 31% say the conflict has no relevant impact on the market.
Compared to the previous quarter, the prognosis for the real estate businesses in the capital for the next 12 months have hardly changed. Relevantl improvement could only be seen in the panel flats market. Eastern-Hungary shows a relatively mixed picture. While the prospects for apartments in non-panel condominiums are improving, the prospects for family houses are slightly worse. In the Western-Hungary region, the outlook on family houses took a negative turn, while in the other segments, not much has changed.
Quarterly, residential construction and home purchasing predictions declined, which is probably related to the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, this doesn’t mean a decrease on a yearly basis. The survey conducted in March 2022 suggests that 84,000 households advised a definite purchase or construction of homes, and a further 180,000 is likely to do the same. (In December 2021, the same survey resulted in 95,000 and 224000 households responding the same, while in March 2021, the numbers were 72,000 and 201,000.)
GKI-Masterplast capital housing index (mixing real estate business and residential expectations) fell by 10 points quarterly, meaning a 7-point increase when we look at the yearly results. Compared to the previous survey, the nationwide index also fell by 10 points representing a yearly 2-point rise. This means that the decreasing results of the indexes are not brutal.
Two-third responded by expecting an increase in the previously owned property prices in Budapest, which is not a significant difference in the results shown nationwide. In Budapest and the Eastern-Hungarian region, a 6% increase, while in the Western region, a 5% increase is forecasted.
The dynamic increase in construction prices will result in higher prices of newly built homes. 80% of the respondents predict a price rise in the next 12 months, and no one suggests a decrease. In the near future a 10% price increase is forecasted.
Most people predict an increase in rental fees, which is correct as a 6% rise is expected in the following year.
Masterplast Nyrt.
Founded in 1997, the Masterplast group is one of the leading building material producer and distributor companies in the Central Eastern European region. The company group owns subsidiaries in 10 countries, and sells products in a further 30 countries. The company is registered in the premium category on the Budapest Stock Exchange, and had revenue of 145,2 million euros in 2023.